Is El Niño's rainmaking reputation overblown?

El Niño does cause above-average rainfall in some areas like California and the southern U.S., but the increases are generally modest.

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Wet/dry impacts vary significantly depending on the type and location of each El Niño event.

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Rainfall changes attributable directly to El Niño are often within the range of normal year-to-year variations.

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Other weather patterns like the Madden-Julian Oscillation have a larger influence on precipitation than El Niño in some regions.

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El Niño's drying effects in places like Australia, Indonesia and Brazil are generally stronger than its wetting ability elsewhere.

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1. Above-average rain occurs in large part due to changes in storm tracks, not directly due to warmer oceans.

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Forecast skill for predicting regional precipitation impacts from El Niño is generally low.

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While El Niño influences weather worldwide, its overall contribution to specific wet/dry outcomes at local scales may be exaggerated.

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