El Nino appears to be on verge of rapid collapse
After peaking in late 2022, surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have cooled rapidly in recent months.
Atmospheric indicators like wind and pressure patterns have shown El Niño weakening substantially since the start of 2023.
Most models forecast the El Niño event to collapse suddenly in early spring, shifting into a neutral or La Niña phase thereafter.
A collapsed El Niño means the global impacts it has on weather extremes could fade quickly this year.
However, other climate factors like human-caused warming, decadal ocean cycles, and polar vortex shifts will still influence world weather patterns.
A transition to La Niña later in 2023 could spell drought for some regions while bringing storminess to others.
While moderate El Niños are common, intense events like that seen over the past year are rarer, typically occurring every 1-2 decades.
Even as this El Niño declines, long-term climate change continues to load the dice toward more extreme weather as emissions rise globally.
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